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Re: [ox-en] Brave GNU World

On Sat, 15 Dec 2001, Stefan Merten wrote:

B> There is a theory how fundamental changes take place, which is really

interesting. StefanMz (the other Stefan with the similar surname...)
is an expert for that issue. IIRC this has been developed by Holzkamp.

Citing from a mail from the German list:

* Stufe 1: Entstehen der neuen Keimformen, die sich später entfalten


* Step 1: Nascency of the germ form which unfolds later.

  I chose "nascency" for "Entstehung" because this points to the fact,
  that the germ form is not "made" anyhow. Free Software has not been
  created as a germ form - though it is.


* Stufe 2: Veränderung der Rahmenbedingungen des alten dominanten
Gesamtprozesses (Krisen')


* Step 2: Changes in the general conditions in the old dominant
  over-all process (crisis).

  This is what we're experiencing currently with capitalism. I think
  it started somewhere in the 1970s. The German Krisis group
  [www.krisis.org] has analyzed that very well.


* Stufe 3: Funktionswechsel vorher unbedeutender Keimformen zur wichtigen
Entwicklungsdimension neben der noch den Gesamtprozeß bestimmenden Funktion
(erster Qualitätssprung)


* Step 3: Change of the former unimportant germ form to an important
  dimension of development besides the form still ruling the over-all
  process (first qualitative leap).

  I guess that is where we are in the software sector. This is not the
  case in other sectors.


* Stufe 4: Dominanzwechsel der neuen Entwicklungsdimension zur den
Gesamtprozess bestimmenden Funktion (zweiter Qualitätssprung)


* Step 4: The new dimension of development becomes dominant and starts
  to rule the over-all process (second qualitative leap).

  This is what I guess is happening during the next few years in the
  software sector. In some fields it's already taking place.


* Stufe 5: Umstrukturierung des Gesamtprozesses auf die Erfordernisse der
neuen bestimmenden Entwicklungsdimension


* Step 5: Restructuring of the over-all process according to the
  requirements of the new dominant dimension of development.

  This is the point after the revolution (where BTW so many
  revolutions of the last century failed miserably :-( ...).


I like this sequence, but it seems to have a problem of assuming that the
capitalist world is a single thing, evolving uniformly in one way. This
might be roughly true for Europe and North America, but what about the
rest? For example, as far as I know, Sierra Leone would be unlikely to
evolve towards a gpl-society in the near future. So if the above sequence
is followed, parts of the world will be in the gpl-society before others.
What happens to the parts that aren't?  Could a gpl-society be imposed on
them if they weren't already evolving towards it? A ludicrous attempt at
repeating Lenin's disastrous invasion of Poland, in the hope of
encouraging local uprisings? Obviously not. And if it isn't imposed, then
presumably they will continue to develop as capitalist countries. This
means they will continue to need markets for their products; but the
gpl-societies would not be money-based, so how would they buy them? Would
they have to create self-contained markets? And so become even poorer, as
Albania and others did before?
  
OK, all this is almost ridiculously remote, but there are immediate
problems related to this. For example, I think that purism about
licensing and observance of free software rules should probably be partly
country-dependent. And that the free software hostility to 'open source'
advocates might be misplaced in some parts of the world.

And also that it would be a good idea to include a stage between
4 and 5 in the list (or maybe split 5) - the period of co-existence of the 
two forms in different countries - just to give a place to discuss these 
issues.

Graham

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