[ox-en] The (Open Source) World in 2020 - A History Based Look into the Future
- From: Stefan Merten <smerten oekonux.de>
- Date: Wed, 21 May 2008 19:39:24 +0200
Hi list!
In Germany there is a Free Software conference called FrOSCon_. I'm
applying for a talk there for the topic "The Open Source World in 2020
- Ein Blick in die Glaskugel..." ("The Open Source World in 2020 - A
Look into the crystal ball..."). Here are my draft slides. You may
find them in the Wiki_ also.
.. _Wiki: http://en.wiki.oekonux.org/StefanMerten/FrOSCon2008
.. _FrOSCon: http://www.froscon.de/
Grüße
Stefan
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A brief look into history
-------------------------
Let's go 24 years back
======================
To peek into the future it is important to understand history
* I.e. 1984
* GNU project just founded
* Free Software very small
* Hard to notice at all
* A few decided persons
* Like Richard M. Stallman
* Lots of idealism
* Internet did not exists as it does today
* No similar phenomena
* But: Basic principles were already there
12 years later...
=================
* I.e. 1996
* Free Software was pretty big
* Linux had entered the scene
* Many contributors
* But was still not very visible
* Was not taken serious
* Company involvement was very small
* Still no similar phenomena
* Though the example started to inspire people
* Basic principles stayed
Today
=====
* I.e. 2008
* Free Software is here to stay
* Lots of contributors
* A sustainable and enduring economy exists
* Though not an economy based on exchange...
* Free Software is very visible
* Using Free Software is common place and growing
* Last frontier: The desktop
* But Ubuntu comes for the helping
* Companies engage in Free Software in various ways
* Similar phenomena are visible
* Wikipedia
* Creative Commons based work
* OpenAccess (= Free Science)
* Free Music and other media (think YouTube)
* ...
* The successful example of Free Software furthered these
* Based on the same basic principles
---------------------
Understanding history
---------------------
Basic principle: Selbstentfaltung
=================================
What are those basic principles after all?
* Selbstentfaltung simplified:
* Having fun individually
* While maintaining a relationship to society
* Fundamental motivator for humans
* Different for every individual
* Good news: Every task may find an executor
* Includes responsibility
Basic principle: Openness
=========================
* Openness in two ways
* Internal openness: Everyone may contribute
* External openness: Everyone may use the results
* Digital copy as the historical enabler of openness
* I.e. technology
* Made external openness easy
* Made internal openness easier
* "Free" in Free Software really means:
* Internal openness is a prerequisite for external openness
* And vice versa
* That defines a positive feedback cycle
A new mode of production emerges
================================
* Exciting: A mode of production emerges which can not be explained by
bourgeoise theory
* No exchange in the core of Free projects
* Something like this is doomed to fail - they say
* But: It exists, grows and is mimicked in other fields
* Power comes from those basic principles
* Selbstentfaltung leads to absolute quality
* If it is your thing you want to make it *the very best thing* you
are capable of
* No boss stops you from doing it
* This principle is at least severely limited if you need to make
profit
* Positive feedback cycle of openness leads to sustainable expansion
* Stronger principle than that of proprietary software
Five-step model of development
==============================
* Explanation of how development occurs
* Germ form = something based on new principles
#. Emergence step: Emergence of the germ form
* Hard to notice at all
* May vanish again
* Think: Free Software in 1984
#. Crisis step: Crisis of the old form
* Necessary to make room for the germ form
* Think: Crisis of Unix on midrange servers
#. Expansion step: The germ form becomes an important dimension *in
the old process*
* Coexists with the old form
* Coexistence is not always peaceful...
Think: Software patents
* Think: Free Software today
* Key aspect: Does it keep its germ form feature
* For Free Software: Basic principles can not be integrated
#. Dominance step: The germ form becomes the dominant form
* The old form slowly becomes less important
#. Restructuring step: Restructuring of the entire system process
* The formerly germ form now looks like the "natural thing"
* Basis of a new five-step model
* For software: Free Software is in its expansion step
* For society: Free Software and similar phenomena mark the emergence
step
200 years back
==============
Capitalism in its expansion step
* Emergence step happened long ago
* Earliest forms even during the Roman Empire
* Crisis step happened when the feudal principles exhausted
* For instance: Religious schism away in the Christian church
* For instance: Enlightenment and new forms of science transcended
feudal principles
* Expansion step started with early textile industry
* Restructuring step is still not fully complete
* We know that a germ form can take over
* And doesn't look capitalism like being in crisis?
* Think: Unemployment
* Think: Finance bubbles
* Think: Insane wars
Insane even by capitalist standards
----------------------
A peek into the future
----------------------
Some words of caution
=====================
* Expansion steps are chaotic
* Remember: The old is fighting with the new
* In particular: Timing is very hard to foresee
* Good news: Small actions can have major effects
* *You* can make a difference!
* External constraints limit seriousness
* In particular: Development of the overall world process
* In 1808 nobody were able to foresee the shape of the world in 2008
* Things which look "natural" to us were even not thinkable
Vertical expansion
==================
* Free Software is common on the desktop
* Most software which can profit from the Free Software principles
will be Free
* Governance problems of Wikipedia will be history
* Either because Wikipedia found ways to cope with them
* Or by a more successful fork
* OpenAccess is standard in science
* Lots of Free Music are available
Horizontal expansion
====================
* More fields will follow those basic principles
* Basic principles general apply to all creative work
* Easier for information products
* Easier when you don't need lots of costly infrastructure
* Guess: Educational material
* Guess: Open hardware designs
* Guess: Open genetic information
* Guess: Open Source Car design
Deeper embedding
================
* Principles more widely accepted
* States further this more
* Basic income for this type of activity
* Companies exploit these principles more and more
* See Eric v. Hippel's work on User Innovation
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